The backlash against prediction markets:

[Prediction market Intrade] showed about a 75 percent chance that [the Obama healthcare] law’s so-called mandate would be ruled unconstitutional, right up until the morning it was ruled constitutional.

The market — the wisdom of crowds — turned out to be wrong.

I have since come to think of the court’s ruling as the signature example of the counterattack of the insiders.


Written by Anthony Zacharzewski

Anthony Zacharzewski was one of the founders of Demsoc in 2006. Before starting work for Demsoc in 2010, he was a Whitehall civil servant and a local government officer.