The backlash against prediction markets:

[Prediction market Intrade] showed about a 75 percent chance that [the Obama healthcare] law’s so-called mandate would be ruled unconstitutional, right up until the morning it was ruled constitutional.

The market — the wisdom of crowds — turned out to be wrong.

I have since come to think of the court’s ruling as the signature example of the counterattack of the insiders.

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Written by Anthony Zacharzewski

Anthony Zacharzewski was one of the founders of Demsoc in 2006. Before starting work for Demsoc in 2010, he was a Whitehall civil servant and a local government officer.