Credulous Bayesians

An HIER paper by Glaeser and Sunstein suggests that people are

Credulous Bayesians, who insufficiently adjust for idiosyncratic features of particular environments and put excessive weight on the statements of others where there are 1) common sources of information; 2) highly unrepresentative group membership; 3) statements that are made to obtain approval; and 4) statements that are designed to manipulate. Credulous Bayesianism can produce extremism and significant blunders.

The paper “discusses the implications of Credulous Bayesianism for law and politics, including media policy and cognitive diversity on administrative agencies and courts”.

(Note that the PDF incorrectly describes the paper as a preliminary draft.)